Unreliable

"Hmm, maybe we can do something with this."  Lucas mumbled to himself as he scrawled another speculative equation.  Like a dozen other disjointed notes, he figured there was a chance it could be used in some way to assist with the interpretation of the gathered data.  There was no telling what might ultimately prove useful, so everything that came to his mind was added to the inchoate tapestry of science.

"Damn it, we can't get anything from this."  Chloe lamented.  Thoroughly working the sheet of scratch paper before her, the writing was neatly structured into sections and clearly labelled.  Sitting together in the otherwise abandoned common room at a broad circular table, notes had been laid out over the table's surface.

The curtains were drawn wide open, revealing the stark emptiness of the rain-slicked walkways outside.  The windows themselves could only open partway along the top edge, which Lucas had done earlier in the day.  The only sounds perceptible through them so far had been the patter of the day's variable rainfall.  Lucas and Chloe were dressed in light coats; thankfully the moisture outside prevented the temperature from falling unbearably low.

"Huh?" Leaning over, Lucas examined the strictly ordered calculations.  A big graphing calculator beside Chloe displayed a lingering calculation he couldn't quite read in the gradually dimming light of the setting sun.  "You having trouble figuring out an angle from what we have?"

"Yeah."  Chloe looked at Lucas with weary frustration of a long fruitless day lining her face.  "We can't do anything with what we have.  All that effort going around talking to everyone, measuring distances and it's fucking useless."

"No it's not.  There's an area near the walls where people passed out and everyone on the other side remained conscious.  All we have to do is figure out where the dividing line is."  A casual initial observation revealed that those present anywhere on the sixth floor for either event had passed out, while a couple on floor five did not.  So that more or less confirmed about two floors of shielding was needed to keep one from being knocked out.  "Since we have a rough idea of how much shielding is needed, we can work backwards from there to estimate an angle of origin."

"Yes.  That's what I was trying to do.  And given what we have I think you were probably right about the event being more or less uniform.  But figuring out anything specific beyond that like an angle of origin just isn't possible."  Chloe sighed and shook her head before mumbling to herself.  "Not that it would even matter."

"No, it's simple."  Lucas leaned over to check the formatted data Chloe had meticulously produced from the disjointed collection of testimonies.  "Just see how far away someone was at most from one side of the building and still got knocked out.  Then look at how close someone was to the wall and didn't pass out.  The line would be somewhere in between those two things."  After that, they could repeat the process with the other wall to arrive at a direction.  A rough indicator of where within the city the alien wormhole was likely to be.

"That's actually the problem."  Chloe selected and pushed a sheet of paper towards Lucas as she spoke.  "People don't actually have any idea where they were standing when it happened."

"Huh?"  Lucas stared at Chloe quizzically.  "How could they not remember where they were?"

"Just look at these two from the first event, for example.  This person estimates they were about four feet from the door and didn't pass out.  And this other person-"  Chloe traced her fingertip across the paper to another entry.  "They claim they were by the stairs- about thirty two feet away and they did pass out."

"What?"  Lucas examined the information.  The two people would have both been in the main lobby, if their testimony could be believed.  Given their assumptions, that shouldn't have been the case.  There seemed to be fairly clear evidence that the strange knock out radiation could be blocked and didn't miss anyone who didn't benefit from some kind of shielding.  "If our assumptions are true, both those things couldn't have happened at the same time.  So maybe something in our assumptions is wrong."

"No, if they were wrong, I think we'd see a lot more variability in the data, like everyone on the top floor not being knocked out.  It's just that both of these claims contradict all the other statements given."  Chloe waved her hand across the data.  "Peoples' memories are just not reliable enough to expect any level of precision with the kind of process we've been using."

"So, just ignore those ones, then.  And just use the rest."

"It's not that simple."  Chloe pointed to another place on her sheet layered with calculations.  "What I pointed out was the most extreme disagreement, but they aren't the only two who disagree.  There's disagreement everywhere in what we have here.  For both of these events."

"That's a weird problem."

"It's not weird at all.  The problem is we waited too long, most people we got to talking to them hours after the thing we were asking them about.  And people just suck at remembering things in general.  I can't even use my own memory for the first event because I was somewhere in the hallway at the time and every part of the hallway looks the same.  At the time, it just didn't occur to me to try and remember exactly where I was standing."

"Huh."  Lucas examined the information Chloe referenced.  With all the notes they needed collected on one sheet it was plain to see that she was correct about the widespread inconsistency.  "Well, can't we still do something to eliminate that problem?  Like take averages?"

Chloe turned on a big flashlight and set it upright at the center of the table, producing a slightly diffuse glow overhead.  She looked at him with a dissatisfied frown.  "You don't know anything about statistics, do you?"

"I know a little.  But I haven't really looked into it."  Lucas reluctantly admitted.

"If you want, I could give you my old statistics book.  But until then, just trust me on this.  With a problem like this we can't just do something as simple as using averages.  I attempted to work out some very basic analysis to give a range of possible values.  But that doesn't work because we have a very small sample size and results that vary enough that our probable angle of origin ends up covering about one quarter of the sky for the first event and very close to half the sky for the second event.  It's just not possible to narrow anything down further than that."

Lucas silently considered Chloe's statements.  He was hoping their efforts would eventually give them something more precise.  If they could at least determine that each event originated from different places in the sky, that would confirm his hypothesis that the source of the events was likely something relatively close that had moved.  Somewhere in Portland, or possibly in Earth orbit.  Of course, Evan's anomalous warning and the mysterious retreat of the soldiers still gave them some reason to suspect such things.  But even well-founded suspicion was not the same as knowledge.

Even with that failure, they could at least still be fairly certain that it took about two floors of shielding to be protected from the knockout radiation.  That wasn't nothing.  Maybe later he'd suggest that the few people whose rooms were on the top floor ought to consider relocating to a lower floor.  Just as Lucas began contemplating a procedure to help raise accuracy, a small voice came to them from the entrance.

"Do either of you have any food?"

"No."  Chloe snapped back tersely before Lucas could orient himself to see the speaker.

"Oh.  Nobody has any.  And everyone's starting to get really hungry."  Erin's voice sank.  A bulky grey coat wrapped snugly around her body, making her appear heavier than she was.  Erin held a downcast flashlight in one hand, partly covered to diminish the intensity of the beam.  "I hope the army returns soon."

"I hope so too."  Chloe nodded.

There was a solemn pause for a moment before Erin spoke again.  "Do you think it's a good idea to have that light on with the windows open?"

"If we hear anything outside, we'll turn it off."  Chloe motioned to the slightly opened window; having spent several hours somewhat in the open with Lucas had evidently calmed her unease about what was hinted to be lurking outside.

Erin nodded, not looking altogether satisfied with Chloe's answer; still nervously regarding the desolate, blackening view through the windows.  "I'm going to keep asking around, and see if anyone else has any extra food."

"Yeah, that's probably a good idea."  Chloe nodded.  "Let me know if something comes up."

While the two girls were speaking to each other, Lucas had been stunned into silence.  He had been thinking about the small meal they had fabricated from the modest stashes in their rooms.  Once the door drifted shut with a soft click and the footfalls receded through the hallway, he whispered to Chloe.  "Why did you lie?"

"We don't have enough food to share."

"You shared with me."

"That wasn't sharing, that was a trade."  Chloe regarded him with a serious glance as she folded her arms upon the round table.  "If we just gave away what little we have, that would only feed everyone for maybe a day, then they'd be back to where they are now, and we'd be in the same situation."

"We're already in the same situation."  Lucas paused a moment, then shrugged.  "We probably only have to hold out another day, anyway.  So that shouldn't really matter."

"If it's just going to be a day, then they can just wait a day."  Chloe laughed mockingly for a moment.  "You really think it will be just a day before someone comes back to get us?"

"Sure, probably.  The zombies aren't any threat at all.  And whatever caused the blackout bomb thing was hasn't triggered it again since this morning.  We also haven't heard the noises Evan was talking about."  Lucas paused there for a moment to shrug passively.  "So there doesn't seem to be any direct threats or dangers at the moment."

"Well, if you want to give away what little you have, that's your business."  There was an awkward silence for a few moments.

"There aren't really any serious obstacles outside."

"If there aren't any threats, then why don't you leave right now?"

"You know what I meant."  Lucas protested.  "I meant that there's nothing dangerous to someone who has a chance to adequately prepare.  And we know for certain that most of the world has the time to prepare for what they want to do about the zombies."  Lucas continued after a moment's hesitation.  "Anyway, whatever caused this blackout phenomenon is a bit more problematic."

"That's the understatement of the year."  Chloe shook her head with a hint of a sigh.

Lucas frowned at the interruption.  "I was about to say, this blackout thing is a problem, but just like the zombies, it's not an impossible obstacle.  We know it can be blocked.  So if you could control a vehicle by remote control from a safe area, like a drone, then you could safely bring it into the city without the risk of it being lost to the phenomenon.  It's only going to be a matter of time before someone tries that.  Heck, they may already be looking around inside the city to figure out what's going on here."

"Investigating inside the city is not the same thing as a rescue."

"It's not.  But when they do that, they're going to see that there's people here who aren't zombies.  Then they'll just send some remote controlled cars in to get us."

Chloe studied Lucas's face, her eyes intensely focused on his in deathly serious candor.  "If this is really some kind of alien invasion, the first priority will be to stop it before making any effort to get us out of here.  If they come to get us, it's going to be a long time before that happens."

Lucas flatly shook his head.  "The zombies and the blackout creating entities are both problems that need to be addressed in order for things to return to normal.  If whatever created the blackout is really gone, the only problem to solve around here will be the zombie problem.  So that means preventing the creation of more zombies will be the top priority."

"And if whatever caused the blackout is still around they're not going to pay any attention to us."

"Yeah, that's possible I guess.  But if it were still around, we should at least be seeing some evidence of that.  Evan said he heard some kind of sounds outside.  And we haven't heard anything all day."  Lucas shrugged and motioned to the open windows.  "Also, if whatever caused that is still around, when the drones are sent here those entities will trigger another blackout phenomenon.  No more blackouts means we just have to wait for the people out there to do their thing."

"Well, do whatever you like then.  But leave me out of it."  Chloe sighed and pushed away from the table, standing up.  "It's been a long day, I'm going to go get some rest."

"We're at least going to have some idea of what to expect."  Lucas spoke assuredly as Chloe took her flashlight with her from the tabletop.  She left the room without a reply, leaving Lucas alone with his thoughts.

Turning on his spare flashlight, Lucas began to examine the notes Chloe had abandoned.  Although he couldn't verify the correctness of the statistics equations, there didn't appear to be any mistakes from what he did understand.  After a few minutes of contemplative silence, he decided to look outside the windows for any signs of activity.

Ever since Evan's warning the remaining denizens of the building were dead silent.  It was almost as if everyone else had already departed.  Standing, Lucas approached the windows with his light readied.  The empty walkways running between the dorm and the library were slick with the day's rain.  On the other side, the small clearing along the inside edge of the building's perimeter were lined with benches, bushes and pine trees.  There was nothing moving to examine and with the windows positioned as they were he couldn't check other buildings in the city for lights.

Lucas thought to go to the rooftop to get a better look, but he felt rather tired now that there were no distractions.  Confident the morning light would bring its own set of answers, he gathered up the preliminary equations and data he and Chloe had worked hard on through the day.  Nobody met him as he returned to his room.  Opening the window curtains to black skies, he laid down whilst idly gazing into the darkness.  Wondering what was going on in the outside world, he soon drifted away into a dreamless slumber.

Awakened by the morning light and hearing a faint, low sound, Lucas journeyed downstairs to see what new evidence would have presented itself overnight.  With light still minimal and battery power precious, Lucas guided himself through the dim hallways by his hands and carefully progressed to the ground floor.

The whole trip, Jorge was the only person he encountered; standing alone at the bottom of the front lobby stairs.  He was nervously watching as several figures rattled the doors, all producing a familiar, characteristic moan that mingled into a foul white noise.

"Hey."  Lucas slowly descended the steps as Jorge turned with a start to peer at him.  "What's going on?"

"Just doing a check."  Jorge exhaled slowly and cautiously returned his attention to the outside.  He was holding a heavy baseball bat in both hands, fingers flexing on the grip.  "They came this way at some point in the night and have been there ever since.  They know we're in here."

"You've been down here all night?"

"No."  Jorge looked at him only briefly, but released one hand from his weapon to scratch at the traces of stubble on his chin.  "Simon set up a watch and we've been taking turns coming down here to check up on things.  Does anything look cracked or damaged over there?"

"Huh?"  Lucas descended the steps and moved past Jorge before casually turning around.  "No.  It looks fine to me."

Jorge exhaled deeply, a nervous tension visibly flowing from his strained muscles.  Regardless, he lowered the bat only very slowly.

"So was someone awake all through the night?"

"Yeah, we're set up in a room just by the stairs to keep a watch out."

"There was another blackout event, wasn't there?"  Lucas asked.

Jorge replied as he began to creep backwards up the steps.  "No.  No, I don't think so.  Nobody mentioned one.  I should probably go back now."  Jorge eagerly retreated.

Remaining behind, Lucas gazed outside, thinking about what that news could mean.  As he did so, he began to truly worry for the first time since the outbreak had begun.